Market Regime

Confirmed broad US equity and risk backdrop, derived from SPY-linked market behavior and cross-asset stress signals.

Regime Predictions & SPY Returns
SPYbullbearneutral
Current Regime Call
LOW RISK

Calm Bullish

Fri, Jul 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM · VIX contango

Character
61%
Calm
Direction
58%
Bullish
Reasoning

Maintaining mild bullish lean from prior session as core structural supports remain intact. Multi-day credit conditions continue signaling risk appetite, VIX term structure sits comfortably in contango within a calm volatility-correlation regime, and large-cap indices closed moderately positive. The low correlation / high dispersion environment indicates stock-specific moves rather than macro selling pressure. However, conviction is tempered by notable small-cap weakness and breadth continuing to narrow on a five-day basis—gains remain concentrated in large-caps. European markets diverging meaningfully negative versus US over the past week warrants monitoring but hasn't yet contaminated domestic risk appetite.

Strategy

Maintain modest long exposure with preference for quality large-caps over small-caps; the narrowing breadth and international divergence suggest selectivity matters more than broad beta in this stock-picker's environment.

Watch For

If small-cap underperformance accelerates while credit spreads flip to stress and European weakness spreads to US mega-caps, this mild bullish call would be invalidated.

International ContextSPY 5d: +0.46%
EWULSE
-1.36%vs SPY
INDANSE
-1.15%vs SPY
EWCTSX
+1.02%Inline
EWGXETR
-2.77%vs SPY

3 of 4 regions diverging from US

PendingScored when market data arrives
Updates daily
Bull/Bear Accuracy (+5d)
70.4%
76/108 directional calls
Total Detections
136
Confirmed regime calls

Track Record

Character— did the market behave as predicted?
+1d+3d+5d
Calm30%(10)60%(10)40%(10)
Trending54.5%(66)60.6%(66)75.8%(66)
Volatile50%(4)50%(4)25%(4)
Total51.2%(80)60%(80)68.8%(80)
Direction— bull/bear totals exclude neutral flat calls
+1d+3d+5d
Bullish50.7%(71)73.5%(68)73.4%(64)
Bearish47.7%(44)65.9%(44)65.9%(44)
Neutral38.1%(21)19%(21)0%(21)
Bull/Bear49.6%(115)70.5%(112)70.4%(108)

Prediction Timeline

28 entries
JUL
9
JUL
10
NoEdge·Bullish
(2×)
JUL
8
NoEdge·Neutral
Pending Scoring
JUN
29
JUL
7
NoEdge·Bullish
(11×)
JUN
24
JUN
25
NoEdge·Neutral
(3×)
JUN
17
JUN
19
NoEdge·Bullish
(4×)
JUN
12
JUN
16
Calm·Bullish
(5×)
JUN
10
JUN
11
Trending·Bullish
(2×)
Market Regime: Bullish Calm (61% confidence) | TradeHorde