Market Regime

Maintaining weak bullish bias despite mixed signals. The most notable feature today is the market's resilience in absorbing a substantial commodity selloff—oil down sharply, gold continuing its decline—without meaningful equity weakness. When risk-off assets get sold aggressively and equities hold flat, that typically signals underlying bid support. The volatility regime remains calm with healthy term structure in contango, and credit conditions are stable with no stress signals. However, today's breadth weakened slightly with equal-weight indices lagging cap-weighted, and Dow outperforming tech suggests some defensive rotation. International markets broadly underperforming US adds a cautionary note. The low implied correlation and high dispersion environment indicates a stock-picker's market where index direction may remain muted.

Maintain modest long equity bias with tighter stops than normal. The dispersion environment favors selective positions over broad index exposure. Watch credit spreads for any deterioration that would suggest the commodity selloff is demand-driven rather than a healthy rotation.